Summary
The wait is officially over! Marvel StudiosThunderbolts*is currently gracing the silver screens worldwide. And if Thursday preview ticket sales are any indication, two things will, or are already happening: the MCU faithful cannot hold their excitement any longer, and analysts may need to start adjusting their opening weekend estimates.
As the final film of the franchise’s Phase Five,Thunderbolts*, a story about a Suicide Squad-like mash-up of antiheroes, is riding into the theaters behind the waves of solid word-of-mouth. It currently sits with a 90% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, among the highest-rated movies in the MCU. The ensemble is as grand as a film of its caliber gets, and includes Florence Pugh (Yelena Belova), Sebastian Stan (Bucky Barnes/Winter Soldier), David Harbour (Alexei Shostakov/Red Guardian), Wyatt Russell (John Walker/U.S. Agent), Hannah John-Kamen (Ava Starr/Ghost), Olga Kurylenko (Antonia Dreykov/Taskmaster), and Lewis Pullman (Robert Reynolds/Sentry). Analysts arepredictingThunderbolts*to open with at least $70 milliondomestically and even as high as $75 million. But its preview numbers suggest an even bigger figure.
Thunderbolts*Scored A Strong $11.5 Million In Thursday Previews
It’s Another Story In France And China, Though
According to industry analystLuiz Fernando on X,Thunderbolts*ended its Thursday previews with an $11.5 million, beating the previous estimate and scoring the ninth biggest such previews for summer debuts. For reference,Captain America: Brave New World’s is $12 million;Eternals, $9.5 million;Black Widow, $13 million;Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 3, $17.5 million; andDune: Part 2, $12 million. With such an opening, Florence Pugh and friends could realistically hit an $80 million opening weekend.
That was in North America. In some overseas markets, such as Europe—specifically France—and China, it is slightly less enthusiastic.Thunderbolts*topped France’s box office, but posted the second-lowest opening day for an MCU title in the country post-COVID with $745,000 on 81,000 admissions (ticket sales). Other less-beloved MCU titles have performed far better. BothEternalsandBlack Widowcrowned their first days in France with $1.6 million on 161,000 admissions. Recently,Captain America: Brave New World’s opening day earned $950,000 on 105,000 admissions. EvenThe Marvelshad $451,000, although on significantly fewer admissions—49,000.
It’s the same story in China, whereThunderbolts*came fourth on the Friday charts,grossing a mere $2.3 million. With this, fans should expect no more than a $15 million opening weekend for this film in what is by far the largest overseas market; again, on par with mid-tier comic book titles likeThe Marvels($11 million) andAnt-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania($19 million) andThe Flash($10 million).
No doubt, Kevin Feige will be relying on word-of-mouth, boosted bysuper-early fan screenings, to empowerThunderboltswith the legs to be a huge commercial success. A couple of important things to note: good reviews and ticket pre-sales numbers aren’t the only indices in box office predictions. Regardless,Thunderboltsis on the right track, and if Ryan Coogler’s recent success withSinnersproves anything, it’s that word-of-mouth is still king. Will the MCU faithful rally at full power behind theThunderbolts*during the weekend? Sunday evening’s numbers will tell.
