Summary
Thunderbolts*’ssecond weekend at the box office has a positive side. The staying power is certainly no cause for alarm, but the raw numbers are a bit disappointing.
Thunderbolts*—orThe New Avengersas Marvel Studios now calls it—opened with $76 million across three days in North America, on the higher end of $70-$75 million projections. It’s a debut on par withShang-Chi and the Ten Rings($75 million) andEternals($71 million), both laden with mid-tier characters. However,Thunderbolts*is still the lowest ever summer kick-off for an MCU movie—Iron Mandid $98 million during the same period 17 years ago—and the second-lowest ever in the franchise when adjusted for inflation.
Positive word-of-mouth, backed by a. 90% Rotten Tomatoes rating (among the highest in the MCU) and an A- on CinemaScore, was hoped to translate to a better-than-usual second-weekend holdout forThunderbolts*.This wish may have come true. PerVariety,the film earned $33.1 million across North America in its second weekend, retaining its spot atop the market and dipping a respectable -55% from Weekend 1. According to box office analystLuiz Fernando on X, it’s the 13th best second-weekend holdout in the MCU.
- 44.7%
-47.2%
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
-47.6%
48.1%
49.5%
50.3%
-51.1%
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
-52.6%
- 53.5%
-54.2%
- 54.8%
Guardians of the Galaxy
-55.3%
-55.5%
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Thunderbolts*’s Raw Numbers Remain A Mixed Bag
A Potential $400 Million Finish Against A $180 million Production Budget Isn’t Exactly A Proud Figure
Overseas, the Thunderbolts didn’t fight as bravely with a $34 million gross (-60%). For reference,Captain America: Brave New Worlddid $35.3 million;Black Widow, $29.9 million;Shang Chi and the Legend of Ten Rings, $35.2 million;Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, $46.2 million;Eternals, $48 million; and DCEU’sBlack Adam, $39 million.
With a global haul of $272 million—$128 million domestic and $143 million international—Thunderboltseyes a $400 million-ish finish. That a film, which opened softer than its MCU peers, is holding out on par with or even better than usual is a positive sign. Regardless,Disney has something of aShazam!situationon its hands. Like the 2019 DCEU film,Thunderboltswill be deemed a commercial and critical success (though a $180 million production budget may say otherwise), but in the grander MCU scheme, none of this is exciting. If anything, it lends credence to the belief that the franchise is no longer the theater magnet it was pre-Avengers: Endgame. A decade ago, mid-tier films (Captain Marvel,Ant-Man and the Wasp) or films with mid-tier characters (Guardians of the Galaxy) grossed between $600 million and $1 billion.
Thunderbolts*has roughly two weeks to grab all it can from the theaters before another Disney tentpole arrives.Early tracking ofLilo & Stitchprojects a reshaping of Memorial Day history with a $100 million debut, and it’s already sporting incredible pre-sales numbers for a PG film.
